Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM)
on the ideas of systems thinking,
the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM)
aims at proposing a conceptual framework for
designing and implementing Foresight activities. The
framework recognises the complexities involved both in real
world systems and in idea creation, which emerge due to
multifaceted interplays between the Social, Technological,
Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems.
Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of
systemic thought experiments, which is about how systems
(e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems,
and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and
intervened for a successful change programme. The thought
experiments are conducted in an iterative, dynamic and
evolutionary process for Foresight which involves the phases
Intelligence (scoping, surveying and scanning phase)
Imagination (creative and diverging phase)
Integration (ordering and converging phase)
Interpretation (strategy phase)
Intervention (action phase)
Impact (evaluation phase)
Interaction (participation), which
continues throughout the Foresight
Phases of the Systemic Foresight Methodology
A set of quantitative and qualitative
methods can be combined to form research, policy, technology,
and innovation paths.
Details of the methodology and examples from its applications
can be found in the publications below.
For more information on the SFM and how it can be used to design
and organise your Foresight exercise, please contact
Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, PhD
Thesis, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University
Saritas, O. and Nugroho, Y. (2012). Mapping issues and
envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 79, pp.
Saritas, O. and Oner, M.A. (2004). Systemic analysis of UK
foresight results: Joint application of integrated management
model and roadmapping, Technological Forecasting and Social
Change, vol.71, issue1-2, pp. 27-65
Smith, J. and Saritas, O. (2011).
Pocket Primer of Comparative and Combined Foresight Methods,
Foresight, vol. 13, issue 2, pp. 79-96.