Dr. Ozcan Saritas


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Research Professor

Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM)

Based on the ideas of systems thinking, the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) aims at proposing a conceptual framework for designing and implementing Foresight activities. The framework recognises the complexities involved both in real world systems and in idea creation, which emerge due to multifaceted interplays between the Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems. Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, which is about how systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme. The thought experiments are conducted in an iterative, dynamic and evolutionary process for Foresight which involves the phases of:

1. Intelligence (scoping, surveying and scanning phase)

2. Imagination (creative and diverging phase)

3. Integration (ordering and converging phase)

4. Interpretation (strategy phase)

5. Intervention (action phase)

6. Impact (evaluation phase)

7. Interaction (participation), which continues throughout the Foresight process.


Phases of the Systemic Foresight Methodology

A set of quantitative and qualitative methods can be combined to form research, policy, technology, and innovation paths.


Details of the methodology and examples from its applications can be found in the publications below. For more information on the SFM and how it can be used to design and organise your Foresight exercise, please contact Dr. Ozcan Saritas.


Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, PhD Thesis, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester.

Saritas, O. and Nugroho, Y. (2012). Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 79, pp. 509-529.

Saritas, O. and Oner, M.A. (2004). Systemic analysis of UK foresight results: Joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.71, issue1-2, pp. 27-65

Smith, J. and Saritas, O. (2011). A Pocket Primer of Comparative and Combined Foresight Methods, Foresight, vol. 13, issue 2, pp. 79-96.

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Updated on: 11/07/12